As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?” at 32% YES with $439K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Currently, markets are divided (46% YES, 54% NO).
The race for the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election has tightened dramatically following the conclusion of Likud’s primary on Monday, August 17, 2026. With turnout at 53.5 percent—down 4.5 points from the 2022 primary—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party finalized its Knesset slate amid internal battles that left several sitting ministers vulnerable. Public polls released around that date placed Likud at approximately 22 seats, a figure that has since fluctuated as opposition parties consolidate. The primary’s low engagement and the risk to incumbent lawmakers underscore internal friction within the party just weeks before the vote, even as Netanyahu remains the presumptive coalition anchor for religious and far-right blocs. [Haaretz, Mon Aug 17]
The central dynamic in the campaign is now a two-way contest between Likud and the opposition Yashar party, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. A Kantar survey published on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 for Kan Reshet Bet showed Yashar winning 24 seats versus 23 for Likud, while a separate Times of Israel poll from August 13 gave Eisenkot’s roster 25 seats and Likud just 21. These numbers indicate that the question of whether Likud wins the most seats in the Israeli legislative election is highly volatile, with the margin between the two largest factions within the statistical margin of error. Neither bloc is projected to secure a 61-seat majority, making the positioning of smaller factions—including new lists potentially winning four to five seats each—critical for any governing coalition. [i24NEWS, Wed Aug 19]
Procedural milestones now dominate the calendar as parties finalize their slates and the election date approaches. The Likud primary result formally sets Netanyahu’s list, but the emergence of splinter lists—such as the roster led by former Finance Minister figures and the Yashar party—has fragmented the right-wing vote. Britannica’s election analysis from August 12 noted that Likud appears set to receive the most votes, but that assessment predates the recent polling surge for Eisenkot. The next key steps include the final submission of party lists to the Central Elections Committee and the official campaign period, during which any further erosion of Likud’s support could shift the balance. With the Knesset dissolution and election date already legislated, the focus now shifts to whether Netanyahu can reverse the trend or whether Eisenkot’s momentum will hold through election day. [Britannica, Wed Aug 12]
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Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 32c — models see 10c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 61c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 78c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (61–98c vs 68c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 78c — market prices it at 68c. 10-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO at 40c, and that contrarian entry is now in profit as YES has fallen to 32c. This smart-money signal points to continued downward pressure on YES, with the wallet's early NO conviction suggesting Likud is unlikely to secure the most seats.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $3.6K | +70% |
With YES at 32c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 40c are profitable, indicating the market has repriced toward a Likud loss since those NO fills. The absence of profitable YES holders removes a natural bid and leaves the 32c level reliant on new speculative demand rather than existing position support.
Polymarket prices YES at 32c with $439K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. Significant 10-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32c | $439K |
| Our Model | 22c | — |