Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 53%: Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Currently, markets are divided (53% YES, 47% NO). Netanyahu's coalition falls to 48 seats, opposition gets 62 seats after legislative blitz - poll.

What’s Happening

Israel's political calendar has locked onto October 27, 2026, the latest permissible date for electing the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset, after the head of the ruling coalition confirmed the schedule amid deepening internal fractures. The departure of the United Torah Judaism party has weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and sharpened the central question of whether Likud can retain its status as the largest faction. A Maariv poll published July 17 projected the current coalition falling to 48 seats against 62 for the opposition, with 83% of respondents opposing Haredi parties in any future government versus just 8% in favor. [Times of Israel, Jul 16]

The contest over whether Likud will win the most seats in the Israeli legislative election has tightened as challenger parties gain. A Channel 13 survey aired July 15 placed Likud first at 22 seats, narrowly ahead of Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party at 21 and Naftali Bennett's list at 15, while a Zionist opposition bloc reached a 61-seat majority — the first such result in over a month. A separate Kan poll on July 12 had Eisenkot's Yashar overtaking Likud by one seat, though opposition parties remained three short of governing without Arab-party support. [Haaretz, Jul 12]

On procedural mechanics, Likud's Constitution Committee voted July 13 to grant Netanyahu eight personal appointees on the party's Knesset slate, with the choice between primaries and a selection committee set for approval at an upcoming party conference. The maneuvering underscores how internal candidate selection could shape whether Likud wins the most seats in the Israeli legislative election. Coalition officials are also reported to be weighing measures affecting flights carrying anti-Netanyahu voters ahead of the vote. With roughly three months of campaigning remaining, the trajectory of the likud most seats in the israeli legislative election race will hinge on slate finalization, Haredi realignment, and whether Eisenkot's momentum holds. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 17]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 57c YES.