As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?” at 12% YES with $55K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). founded, Nvidia, surpassed the $4 trillion market cap and became the most valuable company in the world.
NVIDIA entered the second half of 2026 holding the title of the world's most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $4.85 trillion as of June, according to data from CompaniesMarketCap. The chipmaker was followed by Apple at $4.32 trillion and Google parent Alphabet at $4.2 trillion, per the same ranking. The gap reflects NVIDIA's continued dominance in AI accelerators, though the company's lead over Apple has narrowed considerably since the start of the year, when its valuation stood at roughly $4.6 trillion. [Visualcapitalist, Jun 26]
The contest intensified in mid-July, when Apple briefly overtook NVIDIA in market value during intraday trading on July 17, 2026. NVIDIA shares fell about 3% early in the session, pushing its market cap to $4.84 trillion, while Apple hovered near $4.88 trillion. The positions reversed by the close, with NVIDIA finishing slightly ahead. The two companies have diverged sharply in 2026, and the episode underscored how narrow the margin has become in the race for the world's largest company by market cap on November 30, 2026. [CNBC, Jul 17]
Analysts remain divided on whether NVIDIA can hold the top spot through year-end. Some note that the hardware moat that powered its initial ascent is becoming less absolute as inference workloads grow and custom silicon improves, with timing risk around the Rubin and Rubin Ultra product cycles. Others point to NVIDIA's head start over Apple and Alphabet as meaningful, if not insurmountable. The question of whether NVIDIA will be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026, now hinges on fourth-quarter earnings and AI capital expenditure guidance from hyperscalers. [Io-fund, Apr 24]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
See the markets with a verdict →