Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Ruben Amorim emerges as option for Premier League side.

What’s Happening

The probability that Oliver Glasner will be appointed as manager of Manchester United currently stands at 9%, reflecting a market consensus that the Crystal Palace manager is not the frontrunner for the Old Trafford job. This low likelihood is driven by a series of recent developments, most notably the revelation that Ruben Amorim, the former Manchester United head coach sacked in January, has been put forward as a candidate to replace Glasner at Crystal Palace. According to intermediaries, Amorim is being considered by Palace as they prepare for Glasner’s departure at the end of the season. This chain of events effectively removes Glasner from the United conversation, as his own exit from Selhurst Park is now tied to a separate managerial search rather than a direct move to Manchester. [Yahoo Sports, Apr 22]

Manchester United’s internal succession planning further diminishes the chances of Oliver Glasner being appointed as manager of Manchester United. Co-owner Jim Ratcliffe is actively campaigning for former England manager Gareth Southgate to take over next season, while current manager Michael Carrick remains the leading contender for the job, according to a club shortlist that includes five candidates. The list, compiled by United’s hierarchy, does not feature Glasner, signaling that the club is prioritizing candidates with either direct Premier League experience at the highest level or a history of managing elite international talent. Carrick’s status as the internal favorite, combined with Ratcliffe’s public push for Southgate, suggests that the board is leaning toward continuity or a high-profile appointment rather than a lateral move from a mid-table rival. [Telecom Asia Sport, Apr 25]

Looking ahead, the market’s 91% probability that Oliver Glasner will not be appointed as manager of Manchester United is likely to hold unless there is a dramatic shift in either club’s managerial timeline. Crystal Palace’s search for a replacement—now linked to Amorim—suggests Glasner’s exit is imminent, but his next destination remains unclear. Meanwhile, United’s focus on Carrick, Southgate, and other external candidates leaves little room for Glasner, especially given the club’s recent history of sacking Amorim mid-season. The next key milestone will be the end of the current Premier League season, when both clubs are expected to finalize their managerial decisions. Until then, the market reflects a clear consensus that Glasner’s future lies away from Old Trafford. [Sports Illustrated, Apr 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.