Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?” at 5% YES with $72K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). $737 | | | xAI at 60x Revenue basis: Anthropic $61.5B / $3B ARR (20x), OpenAI $157B / $11B ARR (14x).

What’s Happening

OpenAI's most recent disclosed revenue run-rate stands at $11 billion ARR against a reported $157 billion valuation in its latest private funding round, implying a 14x revenue multiple, according to comparative data published by Bitget on April 21, 2026. That private mark sits far below the $1.0T–$1.25T range referenced in the market question, and the gap matters: for OpenAI's IPO valuation to land between $1.0T and $1.25T, the company would need to roughly 6.4x to 8x its last private valuation before listing. By comparison, Anthropic's $61.5 billion valuation on $3 billion ARR implies a 20x multiple, while xAI's projected 60x revenue ceiling reflects faster growth and cash flows from the X platform. [Bitget, Apr 21]

The structural backdrop is equally relevant to whether OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T. OpenAI operates as a partnership headquartered in San Francisco, classified under SIC 87 and NAICS 54 (research services), a corporate form that complicates a conventional public listing and has been the subject of restructuring discussions. Historical comparison: the largest technology IPOs on record — Saudi Aramco at roughly $29.4 billion raised in 2019 and Alibaba at $25 billion in 2014 — priced at valuations well below the $1 trillion threshold at debut, and no U.S. technology company has ever listed at a $1.0T+ initial valuation. Reaching that band would require public-market investors to underwrite a multiple expansion unprecedented for a debut offering. [OpenAI, Apr 21]

What happens next hinges on three observable indicators: OpenAI's audited revenue disclosures, any formal conversion from partnership to a public-benefit corporation structure, and the trajectory of AI-sector comparables. The Bitget scenario framework assigns a bear case of $421–$527 billion and treats the $1.0T–$1.25T band as a separate scenario contingent on full-reuse commercialization milestones across the sector. With 95% probability currently assigned to NO on whether OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T, the market is pricing a debut below the trillion-dollar line absent a step-change in disclosed ARR or a broad re-rating of AI multiples. Watch the next funding round's disclosed valuation and any SEC registration filing for the first hard data points. [Bitget, Apr 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $72K Volume