Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

As of November 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?” at 5% YES with $64K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

OpenAI was last valued near $500B, making a jump to $700B by December 31 unlikely given the 5% market-implied odds.

What’s Happening

OpenAI, the San Francisco-based research and artificial intelligence company behind ChatGPT, has seen its private-market valuation climb rapidly through a series of tender offers and secondary transactions, with reports of employee share sales pushing its implied worth into the hundreds of billions of dollars. The company, which operates as a partnership and lists 11.5 million LinkedIn followers, has not disclosed a formal public valuation, leaving market observers to rely on funding rounds and tender pricing. The question of whether OpenAI's valuation hit (low) $700B by December 31 remains open, with current pricing assigning a 5% YES probability to that threshold being reached. [OpenAI, recent]

The broader AI valuation landscape provides context for the contract. Comparable prediction markets tracking rival Anthropic show a ladder of valuation thresholds, with the $700B tier priced at 3¢ YES / 97¢ NO on roughly $81.93K in volume, while the $1.5T threshold leads at a reported 90% probability on Polymarket with $6.46M in volume and $518.86K liquidity. Those figures illustrate how aggressively traders are pricing the upper tail of AI company valuations, and why the OpenAI contract's 95% NO pricing reflects skepticism that a $700B mark will be confirmed by year-end. [CryptoSlate, Oct 25]

What matters next is whether OpenAI completes a new financing round, tender offer, or secondary sale that establishes a documented valuation at or above $700B before December 31. Because the company is privately held, resolution of the contract depends on verifiable disclosures rather than public share prices, and the gap between reported employee tender pricing and formal funding terms has historically created ambiguity. For now, the market's 5% YES reading on whether OpenAI's valuation hit (low) $700B by December 31 places the burden of proof on a confirmed transaction. [OpenAI, recent]

Traded on Polymarket — $64K Volume