As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?” at 26% YES with $324K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).
Trading volumes on geopolitical event contracts have surged past $16.2 million in recent weeks, with the question of an iran leadership change by june 30, 2027 drawing intense speculative interest. The market, which currently prices a 26% YES probability, has seen $6.9 million in 24-hour volume alone, according to data published on June 28, 2026. While adjacent contracts on foreign leaders "entering Iran" by that date remain deeply out of the money, the central leadership question reflects a broader reassessment of Tehran's political stability following months of internal factional disputes and external pressure over its nuclear program. The concentration of capital in this specific window suggests traders are anchoring on a defined political timeline rather than open-ended regime speculation. [Startuphub, Jun 28]
The market's focus on an iran leadership change by june 30, 2027 aligns with a broader calendar of institutional deadlines, as multiple governments and agencies have set policy expirations for that exact date. Wisconsin's state budget cycle, Pakistan's extended anti-smuggling authority for customs officials, and Canada's duty-free regime for Ukrainian goods all terminate on June 30, 2027, underscoring how that date functions as a global administrative benchmark. Within Iran, hawks within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have publicly pushed for a harder line against Western sanctions, while reformist factions in the Majlis have cautioned that continued economic isolation could trigger unrest. Analysts monitoring the contract note that the 74% NO probability implies the market sees the current Supreme Leader's position as durable through that window, despite periodic rumors of health complications and succession maneuvering among clerical elites. [Wisconsin Examiner, May 11]
The structural factor likely to determine resolution is the intersection of Iran's presidential election cycle with the Supreme Leader's authority over succession. Presidential elections are not scheduled until 2028, meaning any iran leadership change by june 30, 2027 would almost certainly require an extraordinary event—either a sudden vacancy in the Supreme Leadership or a constitutional intervention by the Assembly of Experts. The Assembly, which has the formal power to select and dismiss the Supreme Leader, has not convened for such a purpose in decades, and its current composition heavily favors continuity. Meanwhile, the June 30, 2027 deadline appears to have been chosen by market creators to capture the end of Iran's current fiscal year and the expiration of several international sanctions waivers, creating a natural checkpoint for diplomatic renegotiation. Absent a verified medical or political shock, the market's pricing suggests traders expect the clerical establishment to maintain its grip through that date, with any transition deferred to the post-2027 horizon. [Business Recorder, Sep 02]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 26c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 81c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 79c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (64–98c vs 74c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 74c. 7-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 61c, meaning it is now deep in profit as the contract trades at 26c and signaling strong bearish conviction on an Iran leadership change by mid-2027. That entry implies smart money views the event as substantially less likely than the market's current 26% pricing, reinforcing the dominant NO side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.5K | +21% |
With YES at 26c, all YES holders are underwater while every NO position is profitable, creating asymmetric pressure against the upside. The absence of profitable YES entries suggests little conviction or fresh demand above current levels, so the 26c price is likely supported by speculative optionality rather than real money backing a leadership change.
Polymarket prices YES at 26c with $324K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $324K |
| Our Model | 19c | — |