AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 33c |
34%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 18c |
40%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Tracked wallets bought YES near the floor (7c) and faded the field at 91c on NO, a classic long-tail conviction setup that treats Portugal as mispriced upside rather than a likely winner. The positioning signals smart money sees value in the convexity trade — small downside, multi-bag upside if Portugal advances deep — but does not imply a directional call on outright victory.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | YES | $1.0K | +40% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $10.5K | -2% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $4.1K | +1% | |
| 0xdcc9..34 | MM | NO | $3.9K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$10,570 on $19.5K capital deployed (avg -54.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $109.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |