Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?

As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?” at 24% YES with $50K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

What’s Happening

Israeli President Isaac Herzog on November 8, 2026 formally tasked Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot with forming the next government, giving the former military chief the first opportunity to assemble a coalition after elections in which the two Arab-led parties won an unprecedented 19 seats on record Arab turnout. Eisenkot has the option of building a coalition with support from the Arab-led parties, and Ra'am has said it will back him — though the party's eight seats alone are insufficient to push him into a majority. The question of whether Ra'am will be in the next Israeli government now hinges on coalition arithmetic that remains unresolved. [PBS News, Nov 8]

The path is complicated by competing coalition models. Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman has made clear he will not agree to a government established with the support of Ra'am or the Joint List, even through abstention, and has instead urged a "maximum effort" to form a 61-seat coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism — dropping his years-long veto on them — while predicting three or four Likud lawmakers might defect. Sources in haredi circles said the ultra-Orthodox parties would vote against a minority government dependent on the Arab parties. Under one arrangement, the Arab-led parties would not necessarily receive cabinet posts, instead negotiating policy concessions in exchange for parliamentary support. [CNN, Nov 7]

Ra'am's participation would not be unprecedented: in 2021 it joined a government led by Naftali Bennett, becoming the first independent Arab party to sit in an Israeli governing coalition. The Joint List has ruled out joining but offered to help install Eisenkot from outside, while Ra'am says it is willing to join an Eisenkot-led government. Whether Ra'am will be in the next Israeli government ultimately depends on whether Eisenkot can secure 61 seats without triggering the ultra-Orthodox and Yisrael Beytenu vetoes — the structural factor that will determine the outcome of the mandate. [Al Jazeera, Nov 7]

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