Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). June 8 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects the U.S.

What’s Happening

A Reuters poll of economists published June 9, 2026 showed a strong majority now expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold its key interest rate for the rest of 2026, marking the first clear consensus on that view this year. Inflation has risen to roughly double the Fed's 2% target, with persistent war-driven price pressures complicating the easing path. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.5%-3.75% following three consecutive 25 bps cuts in 2025, and was held steady at the late-January 2026 meeting. The question of whether the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting has narrowed sharply against a cut as macro data hardens. [Reuters, Jun 9]

Goldman Sachs on June 8, 2026 pushed its Fed rate-cut call out to 2027, citing stronger economic activity and job growth after a robust payrolls report. The bank now expects 25 bps reductions in June and December 2027, scrapping prior forecasts of cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. Analysts noted resilient activity and employment data also lower the bar for a potential rate hike, an outcome that would invert the easing path entirely. The probability the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting has compressed alongside these revisions, with desk strategists pointing to nonfarm payroll resilience as the binding constraint on FOMC action through the autumn. [Kitco, Jun 8]

Dissenting voices remain. Steve Forbes on June 12, 2026 publicly challenged what he termed a "deadly consensus" against any 2026 cut, urging Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the upcoming FOMC meeting to leave the door open. Separate Nasdaq commentary noted markets had earlier in the year priced two additional 25 bps cuts, with the first expected sometime in summer — a path that has since been repriced sharply lower. Historically, the Fed has delivered late-cycle 25 bps cuts when core CPI prints trended toward 2%, a condition not currently met with inflation near 4%. The next scheduled FOMC decision will provide the key signal on whether September pricing aligns with the hawkish-hold consensus or reopens the cut path. [Forbes, Jun 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.