As of August 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?” at 32% YES with $303K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 56c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 67c | 60% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 58c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 64c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 65% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (56–75c vs 66c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 66c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 31c, signaling a directional bet that the Fed will hike after the October 2026 meeting. Their entry below the current 34c market price implies they see value in the hike scenario and may be early relative to broader pricing. With no NO entries from this wallet, the positioning is unambiguously hawkish on rates.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $9.4K | +5% |
With YES trading at 34c, every tracked YES entry from 31c is in profit, while no NO positions show gains. This one-sided profitability creates mild upward pressure as holders have little incentive to sell, though the thin 3c edge offers limited conviction. The absence of profitable NO entries suggests bears have not yet been rewarded at current pricing.
Polymarket prices YES at 32c with $303K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 34c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32c | $303K |
| Our Model | 34c | — |