As of August 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?” at 24% YES with $9.5M traded. 5 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 30c — models see 8c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 51c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 62c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 64c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 66c | 72% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 62% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (51–66c vs 70c). Gemini Flash leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 62c — market prices it at 70c. 8-point gap supports YES.
Tracked wallets show dominant NO positioning, with entries spanning 66c-82c that signal conviction against a 25bp hike after October 2026. The absence of profitable YES entries and the 30c market price versus 39c YES cost basis indicate smart money has consistently faded hike odds. This positioning implies the market views a post-October 2026 hike as unlikely, with NO holders controlling the narrative.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $306.4K | -41% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | NO | $50.7K | -8% | |
| 0xfd2b..50 | MM | NO | $8.2K | -4% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $7.3K | +14% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $2.5K | +11% |
All YES positions are underwater with entries at 39c against a current 30c mark, while half of NO entries (66c-82c) are in profit as the market trades below their cost basis. The profitable NO cohort anchors the bearish side, and their willingness to hold through a 30c print suggests resistance to any near-term YES rally. With zero YES holders in profit, upside is capped by trapped longs likely to sell into strength.
Polymarket prices YES at 24c with $9.5M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 38c. Significant 14-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $9.5M |
| Our Model | 38c | — |