Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep). Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO). Weak jobs growth and easing oil prices reinforce expectations for Fed pause, analysts say.

What’s Happening

The question of whether the Fed will pause–pause–pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) hinges first on the June meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on June 16–17 to hold its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Minutes released Wednesday, July 8 confirmed the hold but revealed a committee split over the inflation outlook, with most officials divided on whether price pressures will stay elevated or cool once the Iran war winds down. Some policymakers signaled openness to a single rate hike this year before holding, complicating the clean three-meeting-pause scenario. [The Sun Chronicle, Jul 08]

The June minutes—the first published under new Chair Warsh—showed policy "on edge," with officials deeply divided over whether an interest rate increase is warranted. According to the projections, the FOMC anticipates no rate change until a cut in Q2 2027, yet a renewed Middle East conflict pushed the implied probability of a September rate hike to nearly 70%. That tension is central to the pause–pause–pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) outcome: a July or September hike would break the streak. Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard questioned the logic of "one hike, then hold," underscoring the internal squabble that could persist for months. [Forbes, Jul 08]

Recent data has tilted toward restraint. Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs figures reported July 3, combined with easing oil prices and cooling Middle East tensions, reinforced analyst expectations that the Fed will not raise rates in the near term. Lower crude prices have tempered inflation concerns, raising optimism that rates hold steady. The next test comes at the late-July FOMC meeting, followed by the pivotal September decision, where the hike-versus-hold debate will likely climax as fresh CPI and employment prints arrive. [CNBC, Jul 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($66K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 55c YES.