AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 10c |
80%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 22c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 21c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 48c, meaning it is now deep in profit and positioned against the pause-pause-pause scenario. Its early NO entry signals conviction that the Fed will not hold rates steady across all three meetings, reinforcing the dominant bearish (NO) side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $5.6K | +50% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,089 on $5.6K capital deployed (avg +109.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $349.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 21c | — | ✓ matched |