AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 77c |
54%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 42c |
16%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 32c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 50c |
50%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 62c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 48c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
A single 41c YES entry against a 38c market and a NO-dominant tape is a weak directional signal — one wallet does not constitute conviction. Smart money is effectively absent; the NO-dominant flow suggests the broader market is fading the initiative's approval odds rather than backing the lone YES bet.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.8K | -50% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,831 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $717.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 48c | — | ✓ matched |