As of October 28, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?” at 55% YES with $52K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 55% probability to: will the republican party win the nc-03 house seat?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 55c. BUY NO at 55c — models see 42c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 75% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (72–98c vs 45c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 45c. 42-point gap supports NO.
Only one tracked wallet is positioned, and it sits entirely on NO at 40c, signaling conviction that the Republican Party will not win NC-03. With no YES entries recorded, there is no counterbalancing smart-money support for the 55c YES price, leaving the directional signal leaning NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $2.2K | +14% |
With YES at 55c, all tracked NO positions entered at 40c are in profit, while no YES holders show gains—an unusual setup implying YES buyers are underwater or absent from tracking. The profitable NO side at 40c suggests downside pressure on YES pricing, as those holders have incentive to take profit or hold against further YES strength.
Polymarket prices YES at 55c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. Significant 42-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 55c | $52K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |