Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $204K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moSmart money wallets positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 78c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 84c | 60% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (64–92c vs 84c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is positioned YES but underwater, having bought a UNSC endorsement of a final U.S.-Iran deal at nearly double the current price — an aggressive, early directional bet on diplomatic resolution rather than a value entry. With only one tracked wallet and no confirming anchor, this is a thin, unconfirmed signal that reads as a speculative long-shot on an ambitious year-end deadline, not durable conviction. The steady decline to 16c suggests the market is pricing this structural YES thesis as increasingly unlikely.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | Retail | YES | $1.9K | -42% |
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 31c against a current 16c price, leaving the position roughly 48% underwater with 0% of YES holders in profit. No NO-side exposure exists to provide countervailing support, so there is no profitable cohort defending current levels. Price has drifted well below the wallet's cost basis, signaling weak conviction backing at 16c.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $204K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $204K |
| Our Model | 19c | — |