Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 38% YES on Polymarket with $51K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

62c

YES

38c

Prediction markets give a 38% probability to: will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31?.

Currently at 38%

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 38c YES.

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OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 62c

Smart money entered NO at 64c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 64c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	NO	$11.0K	-2%
This Market Entered at 64c → now 62c (-2%), $11.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 25BUYNO64+$11,188$11,188 Realized— Unrealized−$234 Total Profit−$234 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1076) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 64c. At current price 38c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 38c YES — $51K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 38c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 38c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	38c	$51K
Our Model	38c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 38% YES with $51K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.