Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

As of November 5, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?” at 13% YES with $56K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES).

What’s Happening

Traders assigned a 13% probability that the US economy will be in a soft landing at the end of 2026, down sharply from a 55% peak in early March, according to Kalshi pricing cited by CNBC. The decline accelerated in late April and early May as inflation expectations firmed and growth forecasts softened. A University of Virginia Darden School of Business audience poll in February had put soft-landing odds at 55%, with 32% expecting "no landing" and 14% a recession, a snapshot that has since been overtaken by market repricing. [CNBC, May 14]

The shift matters because the soft-landing scenario—moderating inflation without a recession—was the consensus base case as recently as February, when the Wall Street Journal reported the economy had come its closest to achieving one in four years, with tariff-driven inflation risks still looming. By May, traders on Kalshi assigned roughly 40% odds to stagflation by end-2026, while Polymarket priced stagflation at 22% and a soft landing at 32%. Deloitte's September outlook projected real GDP growth slowing from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with fiscal policy turning contractionary as tax credits phase out and trade tensions weighing on exports. [WSJ, Feb 15]

Whether the US economy will be in a soft landing at the end of 2026 now hinges on upcoming CPI and payrolls prints, Fed guidance, and whether AI-related capital spending can sustain growth as consumer fiscal support fades. The Darden poll also found 70% of respondents believed the stock market was in an AI bubble, a caution that complicates the growth outlook. With the ideal outcome priced at roughly one-in-eight, attention turns to whether disinflation resumes or stagflation risks build through the second half. [Darden Report, Feb 6]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume