CME FedWatch puts a 74% chance the fed funds rate holds at 3.5%-3.75% through December, with no further cuts priced until 2027.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its most recent meeting, with policymakers voting 9-3 to leave rates unchanged — the level in place since December 2025. Notably, traders were still pricing a 38% probability of a rate hike at the following meeting via CME Group fed funds futures, reflecting conviction that the central bank may need to tighten further to curb inflation running above its 2% target for more than five years. The question of whether there be no change in fed interest rates after the december meeting now hinges on that inflation trajectory rather than any dovish pivot. [Reuters, Aug 12]
The repricing has been dramatic. Per the CME FedWatch tool, markets in March 2026 assigned a 74% chance that the fed funds rate would sit unchanged by the December 2026 meeting — up from just 5% in January, when investors had priced in a 50%-plus probability of two or three cuts. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle scrapped the bank's forecast for a December cut, writing the FOMC would "delay further cuts until core PCE inflation nears 2%, likely well into 2027," citing a stronger-than-expected labor market and energy-driven price pressure from the Iran war. [Business Insider, Mar 23]
The leadership transition adds a wildcard: Jerome Powell departed as Chair in May 2026, replaced by Kevin Warsh, whom President Trump selected on expectations of aggressive easing. Instead, bond-market repricing reflects growing confidence that Warsh will need to raise borrowing costs to contain inflation. With no additional cuts priced until 2027 or later, the near-term debate is a hold versus a hike — not a cut. Whether there be no change in fed interest rates after the december meeting depends on core PCE and CPI prints, jobs data, and energy prices between now and the December decision. [CNBC, Mar 12]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 60c YES.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo4/5 models agree on YES, fair value 76c vs market 60c. BUY YES at 60c — models see 16c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 58c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 72c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 60c | 75% |
4 of 5 models estimate YES fair value above market (60–98c vs 60c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 76c — market prices it at 60c. 16-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is a economics specialist with 100% win rate. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | YES | $1.2K | +2% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | YES | $4.0K | +4% |
YES wallets entered between 58c–59c. At current price 60c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 60c with $50K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 76c. Significant 16-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60c | $50K |
| Our Model | 76c | — |