As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?” at 22% YES with $654K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO). The median projection calls for a single quarter-point rate cut in 2026—the same median as December's dot plot.
As of late July 2026, the Federal Reserve has maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% following its July 28-29 meeting, with major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays publicly aligning with a "hold through year-end" stance. This consolidation around patience comes despite a dissenting view from Citigroup, which projects cuts in October and December 2026 followed by another in January 2027, making it a clear dovish outlier relative to post-meeting market pricing. The probability that there be no change in fed interest rates after the December meeting currently stands at 44%, reflecting a market that sees a genuine two-way risk between a final hold and a potential quarter-point reduction at the December 8-9 session [Indmoney, Jul 30].
The internal Federal Open Market Committee dynamics have shifted notably since the start of the year. In March 2026, the median dot plot projected a single quarter-point cut for the year, but the distribution behind that midpoint revealed a hawkish tilt: only 5 of 19 members predicted cumulative cuts of 50 basis points or more, down from 8 in December 2025. By contrast, 14 of 19 officials have consolidated around a "hold or barely move" scenario, a structural shift that underpins the current market calculus. This dispersion matters because the odds that there be no change in fed interest rates after the December meeting are heavily influenced by whether the committee's median voter sees supply-side inflation shocks as transitory, a view echoed by Wells Fargo economist Tom Porcelli, who argues patience is appropriate when inflation is driven by supply constraints rather than demand [Investopedia, Mar 18].
Looking ahead to the December 2026 decision, the key inputs will be the cumulative trajectory of core PCE inflation, which has been running near 2.6% year-over-year, and the labor market's resilience as measured by nonfarm payrolls. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices a roughly 56% probability of at least one cut by December, which aligns with the prediction market's 56% "No" share on the question of no change. A Reuters report from mid-August confirmed that the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting, citing officials' desire for more data before committing to any easing cycle. Should inflation prints cool toward the 2% target over the autumn months, the probability that there be no change in fed interest rates after the December meeting could compress further, but any resurgence in energy prices or wage growth would likely lock in the hold scenario favored by the current committee majority [Reuters, Aug 12].
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Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 49-point mispricing — fair value 71c vs market 22c. BUY YES at 22c — models see 49c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 61c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 68c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 50% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (48–98c vs 22c). Grok Contrarian leads with 61% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 71c — market prices it at 22c. 49-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 36c, signaling a bet that rates will remain unchanged after the December 2026 meeting, but that entry is now 14c above market. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money hedge or reversal signal to read against the YES thesis. The wallet's positioning suggests conviction in a hold scenario, yet the market's 22c pricing implies that conviction is not shared by broader flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | YES | $3.0K | -59% |
With the YES price at 22c and all tracked YES entries at 36c, every position is underwater by 14c, leaving 0% of YES and NO holders in profit. The absence of profitable NO entries suggests no counter-side pressure has been established, so the current 22c level is not supported by any in-profit cohort. This creates a one-sided loss overhang where YES holders are the only exposed group, and the lack of NO profit-taking implies the market has not yet rewarded the bearish case.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $654K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 71c. Significant 49-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $654K |
| Our Model | 71c | — |