Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

What’s Happening

A South Korean appeals court on April 29, 2026, sentenced ousted former President Yoon Suk Yeol to seven years in prison for resisting arrest and bypassing a Cabinet meeting prior to his brief imposition of martial law in December 2024. The ruling, which effectively removes Yoon from political circulation during the current U.S. administration, has sharply reduced the probability that President Donald Trump will meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026, with the market now pricing that event at just 11%. Yoon’s legal team has indicated they will appeal, but the sentence means any diplomatic engagement—including a potential state visit or bilateral meeting—would require extraordinary legal or procedural workarounds. [New York Post, Apr 29]

The sentencing creates a procedural dead end for any near-term diplomatic schedule involving Yoon. Under South Korean law, a sitting president retains immunity from prosecution, but a convicted former leader cannot hold office or travel abroad without court permission—making it nearly impossible for Trump to meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026 as a head of state. The 89% probability against the meeting reflects this legal reality, compounded by the fact that Yoon’s successor, likely from the opposition Democratic Party, has signaled a more cautious approach to U.S.-South Korea relations. The April 29 ruling also coincides with ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, where South Korea’s role as a key ally is being recalibrated. [AP News, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the next procedural milestone is Yoon’s expected appeal to the Supreme Court, which could take months or years to resolve. Even if the sentence is reduced or overturned, the political damage is likely irreversible: Yoon’s approval rating among South Korean voters has cratered below 15% in recent polls, and his own party has distanced itself from his martial law gambit. For the Trump administration, the calculus is straightforward—engaging with a convicted former leader carries diplomatic risk and offers little legislative upside. The market’s 11% yes probability suggests traders see only a narrow path, perhaps involving a private, non-official meeting after Yoon’s release on bail or a pardon, though neither scenario appears imminent. [NPR, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $70K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.