Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $432K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 9c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

94c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Donald Trump’s Odds of Being Impeached as New Poll Finds Majority Support.

Price has been stable at 6% since 2026-04-06

Traded on Polymarket — $432K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $432K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 29, 2026, 22:06 UTC

On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	74c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	97c	92%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	96c	82%
AI Grok Contrarian	YES	15c	60%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	85c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	94c	94%

6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 15c — Despite the market's 6% YES price and mathematical consensus of 14% YES, there are unpriced tail risks such as unforeseen political scand...

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

All four tracked wallets sit on the NO side with entries at 90-94c, signaling unanimous conviction that Trump completes the year in office. The complete absence of YES entries — even at deep discounts — indicates smart money sees no asymmetric upside in the resignation thesis. Positioning skews structurally toward NO resolution as the base-rate outcome.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc30c..09	MM	NO	$1.4K	0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (0%), $1.4K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 14BUYNO94+$1,410$1,410 Realized— Unrealized−$8 Total Profit−$8 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (948) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd81f..75	MM	NO	$1.2K	+2%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 94c (+2%), $1.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Sep 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 02BUYNO92+$1,197$1,197 Realized— Unrealized+$20 Total Profit+$20 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (552) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$1.2K	+4%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 94c (+4%), $1.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Sep 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 04BUYNO90+$1,116$1,116 Realized— Unrealized+$43 Total Profit+$43 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (650) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xdcc9..34	MM	NO	$1.0K	+0%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 94c (+0%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 4 events · Oct 31 → Apr 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 31BUYNO92+$200$200 Dec 05BUYNO93+$191$393 Feb 13BUYNO94+$193$590 Apr 16BUYNO94+$417$1,007 Realized— Unrealized+$1 Total Profit+$1 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1358) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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75% of NO Positions Are in Profit

NO holders entered at 90-94c and sit on +4-6c gains as YES trades at 6c, locking in near-max profit on a structurally dead resignation thesis. Zero YES participation among tracked wallets reflects total absence of directional conviction on the long tail. Price support at 6c is purely mechanical floor — no smart money is accumulating YES, only NO holders waiting out time decay.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

75% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $432K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $432K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$432K
Our Model	9c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $432K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 9c YES. 6 models agree on direction.