Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Arab officials worry Trump will leave them in a lurch with Iran.
A prediction market tracking the possibility of President Donald Trump resigning before December 31, 2026 currently shows a 6% probability of a "YES" outcome, reflecting deep skepticism among traders despite mounting political pressures. The low odds come amid a turbulent week in Washington, where Republican senators showed rare public defiance against Trump’s demands for a $1.8 billion security fund for the White House complex and his personal ballroom project. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) led a closed-door meeting with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche on May 21, 2026, after which the proposal was abandoned due to insufficient party support. This legislative rebuke marks a significant procedural milestone, as it signals eroding Republican cohesion on Trump’s personal priorities, though it does not directly trigger any resignation mechanism. [Chicago Tribune, Fri May 22]
The political landscape surrounding a potential Trump resignation is further complicated by his increasingly self-focused governance style. A CNN analysis from May 22, 2026 described Trump’s second term as "increasingly about one thing: Trump," noting he is using the office as a "vehicle of personal power" while appearing "oblivious" to an affordability crisis affecting millions of Americans. Meanwhile, foreign policy concerns are mounting: a Politico report from May 17, 2026 highlighted Arab officials’ fears that Trump will "leave them in a lurch with Iran," raising questions about the durability of his peace deals. These external pressures do not directly compel a resignation, but they contribute to a broader narrative of instability that could influence Trump’s decision-making. No formal resignation process—such as a letter to Congress or a public announcement—has been initiated. [CNN, Fri May 22]
Looking ahead, the key procedural milestones that could shift the resignation probability include the 2026 midterm elections in November, which will test Republican loyalty to Trump, and any potential impeachment proceedings or criminal indictments. The White House Correspondents’ Association dinner on April 25, 2026 was disrupted by an unspecified threat, as reported by AP News on May 18, 2026, with some attendees suggesting the event should be "called off" entirely—a symbolic indicator of the chaotic atmosphere surrounding the administration. However, no formal resignation timeline exists, and Trump has given no public indication of stepping down. The 94% "NO" probability in the prediction market suggests traders view resignation as highly unlikely barring a major unforeseen event, such as a health crisis or a decisive electoral defeat. [AP, Mon May 18]
Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $432K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 85% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 94c | 94% |
5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 94c. 5-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $5K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 90c–94c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdcc9..34 | MM | NO | $1.4K | +0% | |
| 0xc30c..09 | MM | NO | $1.4K | 0% | |
| 0xd81f..75 | MM | NO | $1.2K | +2% | |
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $1.2K | +4% |
NO wallets entered at 90c–94c. At current price 6c, all YES buyers are underwater while 75% of NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $432K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $432K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |