Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO). President Trump is set to meet with Middle East leaders next week as he travels to France for the annual G7 forum – where Iran will be a major topic.

What’s Happening

President Trump's June diplomatic calendar has filled rapidly with Middle East engagements, raising the operational question of whether Trump will speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June alongside the previously scheduled bilaterals. Trump is set to meet separately next week at the G7 forum in France with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and UAE's Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, with Iran framed as the dominant agenda item. Syria's transitional president al-Sharaa has not been confirmed on the published manifest, though regional mediators have signaled an expanding diplomatic aperture as Washington recalibrates its posture toward Damascus. [NY Post, Jun 13]

The probability that Trump will speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June is closely tethered to the trajectory of the Iran file. On June 7, Trump told NBC's "Meet the Press" the United States would consider unfreezing Iranian funds and easing sanctions "if they behave," and pledged technical assistance eliminating enriched uranium contingent on a peace deal. Days later, on June 13, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran — with Pakistani and Qatari mediators — were expected to convene virtually on Sunday to electronically sign an agreement ending hostilities, a procedural milestone that would free White House bandwidth for adjacent regional outreach, including Syria. [WaPo, Jun 7]

The security backdrop remains volatile. The Institute for the Study of War reported that on June 8 an Iranian drone downed a US Army AH-64 Apache gunship near the coast of Oman while patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, an incident Trump publicly confirmed on June 9. Any kinetic escalation between now and June 30 could either accelerate Trump's outreach to Sunni Arab leaders — al-Sharaa included, as Damascus seeks distance from Tehran's Axis — or freeze the diplomatic track entirely. With the G7 window, the prospective Iran signing, and a 17-day runway to month-end, the legislative and procedural calendar leaves a narrow but live corridor for a publicly disclosed Trump–al-Sharaa contact. [ISW, Jun 9]

Traded on Polymarket — $90K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($90K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 42c YES.