Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $125.8K

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Q: How did 'Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	53c	6%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	53c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	8c	70%
Gemini Flash	NO	28c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	6c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 6c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x9dd9..bd	Retail	YES	$1.2K	+2%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (+2%), $1.2K on YES Track Record 7d on platform · 1010 trades · 100% win rate · politics specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1010 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,250 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$125.8K	0c
AI Consensus	30c	—	✓ matched

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