Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?” at 8% YES with $109K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Asked by reporters Thursday if Putin needed to meet with Zelenskyy as well, the U.S.

What’s Happening

The likelihood of a direct **Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31** remains low, with the probability of such an encounter holding at roughly 8% as of late December 2025. The most recent diplomatic activity has centered on a **December 28** meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Zelenskyy presented a 20-point plan for ending the war. However, Trump’s subsequent phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin—both before and after the Florida summit—did not yield a commitment to direct Ukrainian-Russian talks. Instead, Putin used a **December 27** session with his top military brass to approve sustained offensive operations, signaling that Moscow prioritizes battlefield gains over negotiation. [Jamestown, Jan 12]

The structural obstacle to a **Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31** is the divergent U.S. posture. In **August 2025**, Trump told reporters that Putin did not need to meet with Zelenskyy, stating, "No he doesn't," while expressing willingness to meet the Russian leader alone—potentially in the United Arab Emirates. That stance has not materially shifted, as Trump’s **December 30** remarks described negotiating teams as "getting a lot closer" to a deal, but he did not condition progress on a direct Zelenskyy-Putin session. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has publicly urged Trump to visit Ukraine to see the war’s toll firsthand, and in his **New Year’s Eve address**, he insisted Ukrainians want peace "not at any cost," rejecting any framework that legitimizes Russian territorial gains. [NPR, Aug 06]

Looking ahead, the decisive factor is whether Washington forces a bilateral track. French President Emmanuel Macron announced in his **December 31** speech that European allies will make "concrete" security commitments to Ukraine during upcoming Paris talks, a move that could either strengthen Kyiv’s hand or complicate a Trump-brokered deal that excludes Ukraine. Putin’s reported dissatisfaction with his latest Trump call, per RBC, suggests the Kremlin is still weighing whether direct engagement with Zelenskyy serves its interests. With the **December 31** deadline now passed, the market’s 92% NO outcome reflects that no such conversation occurred, as the war’s trajectory remains defined by U.S.-Russia backchannels and European security guarantees rather than a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian summit. [RFE/RL, Jan 01]

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