Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

As of November 7, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?” at 60% YES with $51K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 60%: Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election. Currently, markets are divided (60% YES, 40% NO).

What’s Happening

Ljubljana voters head to the polls on November 15, 2026 to elect a mayor, with a runoff set for November 29 if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The contest has drawn substantial market attention, with more than $240,000 in volume traded on the Ljubljana mayoral election winner contract as of late October. Incumbent Zoran Janković has consistently led pricing, though his implied probability has drifted from 68% in early October to roughly 60% in early November, reflecting a tightening race. [GrokBots Arena, Nov 03]

The most recent public polling underscores the competitiveness of the race. A Ninamedia survey for Dnevnik conducted October 12–14 with 691 respondents placed Janković at 34.6% in the first round against Luka Mesec at 21.0%, with Anton Rop third at 8.2%. In a head-to-head matchup, Janković held 35.2% to Mesec's 33.4%, while 23.6% chose neither and 7.1% remained undecided — a margin narrow enough to keep the runoff scenario firmly in play. The polling followed a drone-related controversy involving Mesec that has dominated local coverage in the campaign's final stretch. [Prediction.com, Nov 06]

Market pricing has tracked the polling shift, with the Zoran Janković Ljubljana mayoral election contract easing to about 61% on Polymarket in early November, down roughly 2 points on the day amid $14,000 in 24-hour volume. A separate Kalshi contract put his chances at 58% on November 6. The election will proceed under Slovenia's two-round system, meaning the first-round vote on November 15 determines whether a runoff is required two weeks later. Market resolution hinges on which candidate ultimately becomes mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana; interim or placeholder appointments will not satisfy the contract. [Polymarket, Oct 31]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume