0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

What’s Happening

The probability that **0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31** stands at 5% YES, reflecting a market that sees a complete, 24-hour shutdown of the strait as highly unlikely despite the ongoing conflict. Commercial traffic through the waterway has collapsed by roughly 90% since Iranian warnings and attacks began, with only a handful of Iranian and Greek-owned vessels making the transit as of early March. The strait normally carries approximately **20 million barrels** of crude oil and petroleum products daily, making even a single-day zero-transit event a severe supply shock with global price implications. [Navy Lookout, Mar 09]

The market’s 95% NO side is supported by evidence of managed, partial transits rather than a complete halt. On **May 14, 2026**, approximately **30 China-linked vessels** transited the strait under Iranian supervision, marking the third passage of Chinese oil tankers since the conflict began, including COSCO-operated ships. These transits were facilitated by Iran following diplomatic engagement by China’s foreign ministry, demonstrating that the strait remains selectively open for certain flagged vessels. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated the burden of reopening the waterway should fall on countries reliant on Middle Eastern oil, ruling out large-scale U.S. military escorts. [Cryptobriefing, May 14]

The key question for the **0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31** market is whether diplomatic or military developments could force a total closure. U.S.-Iran negotiations were set to begin on **Monday, July 31, 2026**, after Trump called off strikes, with an outline of a deal reportedly agreed to — though mediators disputed that characterization. Mitigation strategies, including rerouting oil via pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula and overland into Turkey, have been activated, but they cannot fully replace the strait’s throughput. The market’s low YES probability suggests traders view a complete zero-transit day as requiring a breakdown of these ongoing talks or a major escalation, neither of which is currently priced as the base case. [CBS News, Jul 31]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.