0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). At least eight ships controlled by Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31 currently reflects a 5% probability of a complete shutdown, despite a recent peace deal between the US and Iran. As of July 6, 2026, shipping data shows a fragile and uneven reopening of the Strait. At least eight ships controlled by Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. have been observed exiting the waterway using a route close to Iran, after abandoning a US-managed corridor near Oman. Simultaneously, six oil and gas freighters were seen navigating a separate path hugging Oman’s coast, indicating that vessels are still testing which routes are viable. However, the overall volume remains far below normal, with the International Maritime Organization estimating that around 8,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to transit due to lingering uncertainty and Iranian assertions of control over passage permissions [Insurance Journal, Jul 06].

The market’s low probability of a zero-transit day reflects a cautious optimism that the waterway will not fully close, but the situation remains highly volatile. On July 3, 2026, a peace deal was announced, yet no ships immediately made haste toward the Strait, and some vessels that attempted to leave the Persian Gulf along the Omani coast performed unexplained U-turns between July 4 and July 5. Analysts note that Iran is actively seeking to assert its authority over the key waterway, with some ships only completing their transits after switching to a route closer to Iran—a move that suggests Tehran is granting selective passage. The oil market remains fixated on these movements, as any disruption to the roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude that typically transits Hormuz could trigger severe price spikes [Yahoo Finance, Jul 04].

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the current trickle of traffic can scale into a sustained reopening, or if renewed tensions could push the count to zero. On July 6, 2026, a modest but significant shift was observed at Iran’s Kharg Island, where both the western and eastern crude terminals were reoccupied overnight by dark ballast tankers—fresh arrivals not present the day before—indicating a new loading cycle is opening after a period of terminal vacancy. Three very large crude carriers (VLCCs) of approximately 333 meters each are now at berth, with loading expected to commence. This suggests that Iran is preparing to export oil again, which could increase the number of transits in the coming days. However, the market’s 95% probability that at least one ship will transit on any given date by July 31 implies that traders view a complete halt as unlikely, though the path to normalcy remains fraught with diplomatic and operational hurdles [Marine Link, Jul 06].

Traded on Polymarket — $83K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($83K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.