As of October 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?” at 16% YES with $722K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 16% probability to: will republicans win iowa and kansas, and lose alaska, maine, michigan, ohio, and texas?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (64–92c vs 84c). Kimi Macro leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 84c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 10c, well below the current 16c, indicating early conviction on this multi-state Republican outcome. With no NO entries from tracked wallets, smart-money positioning is unambiguously one-sided toward YES. The entry level signals the wallet saw value at a steep discount, though the thin one-wallet sample limits confidence in broader smart-money consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $43.1K | +65% |
All YES positions are in profit, with entries at 10c against the current 16c mark, giving holders a 6c gain per share. No NO-side entries exist, so there is no losing cohort to create sell pressure. The profitable YES cohort has little incentive to exit at 16c, which supports the price floor and suggests upside bias if new buyers arrive.
Significant 26-cent gap: Polymarket at 16c vs Kalshi at 42c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 20c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $722K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 20c | — |