Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). The hearing on 13 August will last perhaps an hour.
A federal judge in Miami postponed a hearing on August 13, 2026 that was to decide whether social media influencers Andrew Tate, 39, and his brother Tristan Tate should remain in custody while they fight extradition to the United Kingdom, where they are accused of rape and sex trafficking. The delay is central to whether andrew tate released from custody by august 31, becomes possible, as the detention question — originally listed for a roughly one-hour hearing — was left unresolved. Both brothers deny all charges and allegations, and no court has convicted either of any offence. [PBS, Aug 13]
The brothers are being held in solitary confinement in a Miami jail, described by their defense as "not a Marriott," after they moved on July 27, 2026 to seek release from US custody during the extradition fight. Defense lawyer Joseph McBride confirmed Andrew Tate has continued posting online from behind bars, telling reporters the team was "glad that he's able to get it out there." With the bond hearing pushed back, the prospect of andrew tate released from custody by august 31, narrowed sharply, since no ruling on interim liberty had been issued as the month advanced. [Reuters, Aug 12]
The immediate procedural question is where the Tates sleep for the next twelve months, while Britain's full extradition request is due by September 16, 2026 — a deadline that falls after the market's cutoff. Because the postponed August 13 hearing settled the detention timeline rather than granting freedom, any path to andrew tate released from custody by august 31, depended on a rapid, favorable bond decision that had not materialized. Next steps hinge on the rescheduled custody hearing and the pending UK filing. [USA Herald, Aug 05]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moOddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.
Explore Market Radar →These Other markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis: