Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Brazil Party Asks Court to Halt Rare Earths Miner’s Sale.

What’s Happening

Left-wing Brazilian political party Rede Sustentabilidade has formally petitioned the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to suspend the $2.8 billion sale of mining company Serra Verde Group to USA Rare Earth Inc, arguing the transaction violates constitutional safeguards for strategic mineral resources. The filing, submitted on Friday, April 24, 2026, contends that Brazilian law lacks sufficient protections for national interests in the exploitation of rare earth elements. Separately, lawmakers from the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) filed a complaint with the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) seeking annulment of the deal, which would be one of the largest rare earth transactions globally. This legal challenge directly involves the STF, raising the political stakes for the court’s justices as they face scrutiny over their handling of politically sensitive cases. [Bloomberg, Apr 25]

The petition intensifies the political pressure on the STF, where the question of any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment remains a live procedural issue. The court’s involvement in blocking a major foreign investment—particularly one backed by the Trump administration’s Project Vault initiative—could trigger legislative backlash. Brazil’s Congress has previously debated impeachment motions against justices over rulings on mining rights and environmental licenses. The National Mining Agency (ANM) has already approved the transfer of control, but the STF’s potential intervention could set a precedent for judicial review of executive branch decisions on strategic assets. Analysts note that the court’s ruling on this case will be closely watched as a bellwether for its institutional independence. [The Edge Malaysia, Apr 26]

The next procedural milestone is the STF’s decision on whether to accept the case for review, which could come within weeks. If the court grants an injunction, it would temporarily halt the sale and force a full constitutional review—a process that could take months and further inflame tensions between the judiciary and the executive branch. The probability of any Brazil STF justice removed by impeachment before 2027 currently stands at 10%, reflecting market skepticism that Congress will muster the two-thirds majority needed for removal. However, the rare earths case adds a new dimension: if the STF blocks a deal framed as vital to U.S.-Brazil strategic cooperation, it could galvanize impeachment efforts among nationalist lawmakers. The PSOL’s complaint also requests the PGR to investigate the ANM’s approval process, potentially creating parallel legal pressure. [teleSUR English, Apr 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $64K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($64K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.