Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Jack Draper is once again preparing for his return to tennis, having not played a competitive match since playing at Eastbourne in July..

What’s Happening

Jack Draper’s status for the **Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper** first-round match in Montreal remains uncertain after the British No. 1 confirmed he has not played a competitive match since **Eastbourne in July**. Draper has repeatedly withdrawn from tournaments at the last minute this season, citing physical issues, and his preparation for the hard-court swing has been limited to practice sessions. The **National Bank Open**, a Masters 1000 event, begins on **Monday, August 3**, with Draper scheduled to face French qualifier Terence Atmane, yet his recent pattern of late pullouts has cast doubt on whether he will take the court at IGA Stadium [Google, Mon Aug 03].

The matchup carries added weight because the **2026 Montreal draw** is unusually open, with top seeds **Alexander Zverev** leading the field in the absence of **Jannik Sinner** and **Carlos Alcaraz**, both of whom skipped the event. Draper, who received a wild card into the **Cincinnati Open** later this month, was one of four players granted that entry alongside **Stan Wawrinka** and **Grigor Dimitrov**, signaling tournament directors still view him as a marquee attraction despite his fitness struggles. If Draper withdraws from the Canadian Open, his replacement would come from the qualifying draw, and Atmane would advance by walkover — a scenario that would significantly alter the betting landscape for the **Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper** market, where the current probability sits at **32% YES / 68% NO** for Draper winning [Google, Sat Aug 01].

What happens next hinges on Draper’s official on-site decision, which is expected no later than **Monday morning** when the order of play is finalized for the day session. The **Canadian Open 2026 order of play** published for **August 3** lists the match, but organizers have built in flexibility for late changes, a common practice given Draper’s history of withdrawing after the draw is released. For Atmane, ranked outside the top 100, this represents a significant opportunity: a win over a top-20 player would mark his first Masters 1000 victory, while a walkover would still earn him ranking points and prize money. The ATP has not commented on Draper’s fitness, and his team has declined to issue a statement beyond confirming his presence in Montreal [Google, Mon Aug 03].

Traded on Polymarket — $131K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 32c YES with $131K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.