National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES).

What’s Happening

The second-round matchup at the **National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet** is set for **Wednesday, August 5, 2026**, at IGA Stadium in Montreal, with the match scheduled for a **19:10 local start** on outdoor hard courts. Jodar, the **20th seed** and a NextGen ATP breakout star, received a first-round bye and will face the winner of the Márton Fucsovics–Corentin Moutet match, which was completed earlier in the week. Moutet, currently ranked **world number 59**, advanced after defeating Fucsovics in straight sets, setting up a maiden career meeting between the two players. The winner will advance to the Round of 16, where a potential clash with **No. 11 seed Lorenzo Musetti** looms in the bottom quarter of the draw. [The Stats Zone, Aug 04]

This ATP 1000 event carries significant ranking implications for both competitors. Jodar, who has been one of the form players of the North American hard-court summer, is seeking his first career Masters 1000 fourth-round appearance. The 20-year-old Spaniard has won **12 of his last 14 matches** on hard courts, including a title run at the Winston-Salem Open in late July. Moutet, a left-handed Frenchman known for his defensive versatility and drop-shot prowess, is looking to reach the Round of 16 at a Masters 1000 event for only the third time in his career. The pair have never faced each other on the ATP Tour, making this a tactical unknown for both camps. Oddsmakers have installed Jodar as a clear favorite, with the market pricing his win probability at roughly **70 percent** heading into the match. [Wincomparator, Jul 29]

The outcome of the **National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet** will shape the bottom section of the Montreal draw, which also features **No. 3 seed Alex de Minaur** and **No. 8 seed Jiri Lehecka** as potential quarterfinal opponents. Jodar’s aggressive baseline game and improved serve have drawn comparisons to Carlos Alcaraz’s early career trajectory, while Moutet’s ability to disrupt rhythm makes him a dangerous unseeded floater. The winner will play on **Thursday, August 6**, against either Musetti or qualifier Martin Landaluce. Broadcast coverage is available via **Sky Sports Tennis in the UK** and the **Tennis Channel in the USA**, with online streaming through Sky Go and the Tennis Channel platform. [ATP Tour, Aug 04]

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 70c YES.