Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: National Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Terence Atmane. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).
The second-round matchup at the **National Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Terence Atmane** is set for Wednesday, August 5, at approximately **3:40 PM ET** on Court 5 at IGA Stadium in Montreal. Khachanov, the **21st seed**, enters with a **-134 moneyline** advantage after receiving an opening-round bye, while Atmane is a **+110** underdog. The Frenchman, ranked **46th**, advanced by defeating former world No. 4 Jack Draper in a three-set thriller on Tuesday, **6-2, 3-6, 6-2**, marking his first career win over a player of that caliber at a Masters 1000 event [Oddschecker, Aug 5].
The scheduling dynamic is a critical factor in this **National Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Terence Atmane** contest. Atmane returns to court **less than 24 hours** after his draining victory over Draper, a match that stretched past two hours and required a decisive third set. Khachanov, by contrast, has been idle since the weekend, preserving energy and allowing his team to prepare specifically for Atmane’s left-handed serve-and-forehand patterns. The quick turnaround has historically produced upsets in Montreal, where heat and humidity at IGA Stadium can amplify fatigue; Atmane’s previous match ended late Tuesday evening, leaving him roughly **16 hours** of recovery before Wednesday’s scheduled start [Sportsnet, Aug 5].
The winner will face either Jacob Fearnley or Jakub Menšík in the third round, with the victor potentially meeting **No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev** in the quarterfinals. Khachanov, who has reached the Montreal quarterfinals twice in his career, is seeking his first ATP Masters 1000 title since 2018, while Atmane is chasing his first career quarterfinal appearance at this level. Atmane’s win over Draper, who was playing on a wildcard after injury recovery, has been noted as a statement result, but the Frenchman’s **1-4 career record** against top-30 opponents on hard courts remains a concern. The match is scheduled to be broadcast on Tennis Channel, with Sky Sports also carrying live coverage in the UK [Sky Sports, Aug 5].
Polymarket prices this at 56c YES with $198K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moOddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.
Explore Market Radar →These Other markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis: