Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

What’s Happening

The question of whether the Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting sits against a backdrop of a central bank widely expected to hold. Ahead of the July 2026 "Super Thursday" decision, analysts flagged a hold as the base case, even as sticky services inflation kept hike risk alive. Berenberg projected the Bank Rate holding through 2026 and into 2027, and characterized the market's pricing of two hikes to 4.25% by March 2027 as an overshoot. Oxford Economics echoed that view, expecting rates to remain at current levels for the rest of 2026 and well into 2027. That skew toward a prolonged hold explains why an incremental September hike is treated as a low-probability tail. [Techtimes, Jul 27]

Recent policy history reinforces the dovish tilt. At the November 2025 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to leave rates unchanged, with Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote, preferring evidence of declining inflation before committing to a move. A Reuters poll taken November 13-18 found nearly 80% of economists — 48 of 61 — expected a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% on December 18, with the remainder forecasting no change; none projected a hike. The last easing bias makes the scenario where the Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting a sharp break from the recent trajectory. [Reuters, Nov 18]

The upside risk is not zero. The ECB hiked its main rate by 25 bps in June 2026 — its first increase since 2023 — citing inflation pressure tied to the Iran war, a reminder that supply shocks can force reversals. Should UK CPI and services inflation reaccelerate, the case that the Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting would strengthen. For now, forecasters lean toward extended holds rather than tightening, and comparable questions on the Fed's September 2026 path also priced hikes near 1%, consistent with the market's roughly 7% read here. [Economic Times, Jun 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 7c YES.