Ben Pasternak jailed?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Ben Pasternak jailed. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

What’s Happening

Australian entrepreneur Ben Pasternak, 26, was arrested on Tuesday, April 21 in New York and charged with one count of second-degree strangulation and two counts of assault with intent to cause physical injury, following an alleged incident on March 31 at the Baccarat Hotel on West 53rd Street. The charges stem from an altercation with his ex-girlfriend, influencer Evelyn Ha, who prosecutors say was attempting to film Pasternak on her phone when the assault occurred. Pasternak, whose plant-based chicken nugget company Simulate was once valued at $250 million, pleaded not guilty to all charges in Manhattan criminal court. Court records indicate he had been staying at the $2,000-per-night Midtown hotel to avoid being served with a lawsuit against his cryptocurrency venture, Believe, according to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office. [NY Post, Apr 24]

The arrest adds a criminal dimension to Pasternak’s already turbulent business affairs. The Block reported that Believe, his SocialFi and token launchpad app, is facing a “rug pull” lawsuit, and the founder’s legal troubles now extend beyond civil claims. Pasternak, the grandson of wealthy Sydney real estate developer Bob Magid, rose to prominence as a serial start-up founder during the fake meat boom, launching Simulate at the height of the plant-based food craze. The current charges — strangulation in the second degree and assault — carry potential prison time in New York, where strangulation is treated as a violent felony. The case has drawn significant media attention given Pasternak’s profile as a millennial tech figure and the high-profile nature of the alleged victim, Evelyn Ha, who has a substantial social media following. [The Block, Apr 23]

The question of whether Ben Pasternak will ultimately be jailed remains unresolved, with the case now moving through the New York criminal justice system. His next court appearance is expected to address bail conditions and the discovery process, while the separate civil lawsuit against Believe continues to unfold. Legal analysts note that strangulation charges in New York are often treated seriously by prosecutors, and a conviction could result in a state prison sentence. However, Pasternak’s not-guilty plea and the early stage of proceedings mean the outcome is far from certain. The dual legal battles — criminal and civil — will likely shape both his personal freedom and his remaining business interests in the coming months. [People, Apr 23]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.