Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

What’s Happening

A new Polymarket contract tracking whether Elon Musk will post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026, opened with a 14% YES probability on Tuesday, August 11, reflecting early trader skepticism about a repeat of the prior week's output. The previous weekly market, covering August 4-11, closed with a final count of 163 tweets, landing squarely in the 160-179 range that traded at 39 cents just hours before resolution. That outcome followed a late surge in posting activity, with the count jumping from 152 to 163 in the final 26 hours of the window, a pattern that has made weekly tweet-count markets among the most volatile on the platform, with roughly $1.99 million in volume on the expiring contract alone. [X, Mon Aug 10]

The new market's low starting probability of 14% for the 160-179 bin stands in sharp contrast to the previous week, where that same range was the leading outcome at 39-52 cents throughout the final days. Traders are weighing several factors: Musk's average daily posting rate has fluctuated between 21 and 26 tweets per day over recent weeks, but the measurement window now begins on a Tuesday rather than a Monday, shifting weekly patterns. A live tracker called MuskSense reported 68 tweets from the @elonmusk account in the first four days of the current window (August 7-11), which would project to roughly 119-136 tweets for a full week if sustained — well below the 160-179 threshold. This early data has pushed the 140-159 range to 27.5% probability on the parallel August 7-14 market, with the 160-179 bin trailing at 14%. [Instagram, Mon Aug 11]

The market's significance extends beyond Musk's posting habits, as these tweet-count contracts have become a proxy for measuring engagement volatility on X and a testing ground for high-frequency prediction trading. The August 11-18 contract has 26 distinct price bins ranging from under 20 tweets to over 300, with the 180-199 range currently trading at 25.5% and the 200-219 bin at 7.1%. Resolution occurs at 12:00 PM ET on August 18, and traders will be watching whether Musk's posting intensity follows his typical mid-week surge or continues the slower pace seen over the weekend. The previous week's late acceleration — a 7.2% jump in probability for the 160-179 bin in the final 24 hours — demonstrates how quickly these markets can shift as the deadline approaches. [LinkHash Terminal, Sun Aug 09]

Traded on Polymarket — $67K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($67K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 14c YES.