Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES). The first StrictlyVC of 2026 hits SF on April 30.

What’s Happening

A prediction market tracking Elon Musk's social media activity has priced a 13% probability that he will post between 120 and 139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026, with an overwhelming 87% of participants betting against that volume. The market opened amid a turbulent week for Musk, who on May 5 was in a federal courtroom in Oakland, California, for the ongoing trial against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. During cross-examination, federal judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers reportedly admonished Musk, asking, "How can we get things done without you making things worse outside the courtroom?" [WaPo, May 2] The legal proceedings have consumed significant public attention, potentially influencing Musk's online output as he balances courtroom appearances with his roles at Tesla, SpaceX, and X (formerly Twitter).

The timing of the prediction window coincides directly with the trial's second week, which has already produced dramatic testimony. On May 5, OpenAI president Greg Brockman testified that Musk sought $80 billion to fund a Mars colonization project, a revelation that dominated news cycles. [Reuters, May 5] Separately, OpenAI published a blog post on April 30 alleging Musk is "motivated by jealousy" and has "spent years harassing OpenAI through baseless lawsuits and public attacks." [PC Gamer, Apr 30] The market's 87% "NO" probability suggests traders expect Musk's legal and corporate obligations to suppress his typical posting frequency, which has historically spiked during controversies. The 120-139 tweet range represents a moderate volume—roughly 15-17 posts per day—below his peak output during high-profile events but above his baseline on quieter weeks.

Looking ahead, the outcome of this prediction market hinges on whether Musk uses X as a platform to respond to trial developments in real time. On May 5, TheStreet reported that Musk made a "shocking admission" about Altman and OpenAI during the proceedings, though the full context remains under seal. [TheStreet, May 5] Additionally, the Pentagon announced on May 1 that it had inked deals with Nvidia, Microsoft, and AWS to deploy AI on classified networks—a development that touches on Musk's broader AI interests and could prompt commentary. [TechCrunch, May 1] If Musk chooses to livetweet testimony or rebut OpenAI's claims, the elon musk post 120-139 tweets from may 5 to may 12, threshold could be breached. Conversely, if the trial restricts his access to devices or he prioritizes legal strategy, the elon musk post 120-139 tweets from may 5 to may 12, target will likely remain unmet. The market resolves at the end of the period, with final tweet counts verified by platform data.

Traded on Polymarket — $57K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 13c YES.