Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2

Prediction markets put the probability at 64%: Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2. Currently, markets are divided (64% YES, 36% NO). Rashford's Manchester mural vandalised after loss.

What’s Happening

The possibility of a long-awaited rematch between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao has gained renewed traction, with current market data indicating a 64% probability that the bout will occur. This speculation comes amid a turbulent period for Mayweather, who faces significant legal and financial hurdles. The former five-division world champion, now 49, was recently scheduled to fight Mike Tyson in an exhibition match in the Congo, but the event was abruptly canceled. Reports from Ring Magazine indicate that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has notified Mayweather of its intent to revoke his U.S. passport due to a delinquent tax debt exceeding $7.25 million, casting doubt on his ability to travel for future fights, including a proposed exhibition against Greek kickboxer Mike Zambidis in Athens on June 27. [New York Post, May 01]

The potential floyd mayweather vs. manny pacquiao 2 would revisit one of boxing's most lucrative rivalries, following their original 2015 super-fight which generated over $600 million in revenue. Pacquiao, now 47, has remained active in exhibition bouts and political circles in the Philippines, while Mayweather has focused on high-profile exhibitions since his official retirement. However, Mayweather's passport issues present a critical obstacle; the IRS has reportedly flagged his travel documents due to the outstanding debt, which could prevent him from leaving the United States to fight abroad or even from hosting a bout domestically if international travel is required for promotion. The uncertainty surrounding Mayweather's legal status has fueled market interest in whether a second fight with Pacquiao can be realistically scheduled. [Telecom Asia Sport, May 01]

If the floyd mayweather vs. manny pacquiao 2 materializes, it would likely be one of the most-watched events in boxing history, though the sport's current landscape is dominated by younger stars. On May 5, David Benavidez headlined a Cinco de Mayo weekend pay-per-view card in Las Vegas, moving up to cruiserweight and earning a spot in the top five of a second weight class, while Naoya Inoue defended his pound-for-pound crown in front of 55,000 fans in Japan. These developments underscore a generational shift, but the commercial draw of a Mayweather-Pacquiao rematch remains immense. The next key milestone will be Mayweather's court proceedings regarding his tax debt, which could determine his ability to secure a fight license and travel. Market participants are watching for any official announcement from either fighter's camp or a major promoter like Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions. [CBS Sports, May 05]

Traded on Polymarket — $65K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($65K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 62c YES.