Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). About The Times of Israel.
The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which reported "relatively more intense and consistent exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf." The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on July 11 that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, and hit a second unspecified ship on July 12. In response, the United States conducted over 300 strikes inside Iran and targeted dozens of Iranian military assets to degrade Tehran's ability to threaten shipping. Whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 now hinges on whether these escalating naval clashes can be contained before they trigger a return to open war. [Understanding War, Jul 14]
On July 14, the US military said it had reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports in retaliation for Iran's attacks on commercial ships, as the interim deal unraveled. Iran's selective closure has choked global oil flows: only six ships navigated the Strait of Hormuz in a 24-hour window, with more than 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Gulf. US Central Command confirmed a third round of strikes after Iran targeted an American military base in Kuwait, and Washington is pressing Tehran for a pledge to free up Hormuz. Analysts caution that each round of tit-for-tat strikes narrows the path back to de-escalation. [Times of Israel, Jul 14]
Regional actors are working to avoid being drawn in: on July 16, Qatar firmly denied Israeli media reports that Doha had agreed to join military action against Iran, reaffirming it would not act against neighboring states. The structural factor determining whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 is control of the Strait of Hormuz — if Iran maintains its blockade and US strikes persist, a formal ceasefire is unlikely to hold. A negotiated reopening of the strait would be the clearest signal that the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 16]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($88K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 80c YES.
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