As of October 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?” at 88% YES with $56K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 88% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 4?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels are divided — no strong consensus on direction. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 94c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 90c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (90–94c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 91c — market prices it at 88c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Only one tracked wallet is positioned, entering YES at 89c—essentially at current market levels, signaling no informational edge or early accumulation. This is passive momentum-following rather than smart-money conviction, so it offers little directional signal beyond confirming the market's already-high 88% ceasefire probability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $2.0K | 0% |
The sole tracked position is a YES entry at 89c against a current 88c mark, leaving it marginally underwater with 0% of YES and NO holders in profit. With no profitable cohort to anchor support, the 88c price rests on thin conviction rather than realized gains, making it vulnerable to any negative headline. The 1c gap implies mild downward drift pressure absent fresh buying.
Polymarket prices YES at 88c with $56K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 91c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $56K |
| Our Model | 91c | — |