Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?” at 90% YES with $197K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 90% to continue through November 5, though related ceasefire markets show declining confidence for later dates.

What’s Happening

The US-Iran ceasefire remained in place as of Nov. 2, 2026, despite a continued standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth telling reporters that "the ceasefire is not over" and describing the churn as a "separate and distinct project" from broader hostilities. His remarks came after bursts of military friction in the waterway, which negotiators have treated as distinct from the core cessation of hostilities. The question of whether the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5 has drawn fresh attention as regional envoys press a two-day plan to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks with Washington. [Al Jazeera, May 05]

Diplomatic momentum has built around a phased package: Iran has floated a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear negotiations with the United States, according to regional reports published Nov. 2. Hawks in Washington and Jerusalem argue that any easing of pressure rewards Tehran for the Hormuz disruption, while analysts caution that the Lebanon file remains the clearest obstacle—Iran has pressed for an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon as a condition for any lasting end to the war. The Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5 question therefore hinges less on the strait than on whether Lebanon strikes are folded into the truce architecture. [Click2Houston, Nov 02]

Separately, major fighting between Israel and Hamas has largely halted under the October 2025 ceasefire, though Israel continues near-daily strikes on Gaza that it says target militants; Gaza's Health Ministry reports about 1,580 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire began. Regional tracking of the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5 contract has priced sustained calm at roughly 90%, with later-dated horizons stepping down—82% through Nov. 7 and 73% through Nov. 8. The structural factor that will determine resolution is whether negotiators convert the Hormuz arrangement into a memorandum of understanding that addresses Lebanon, the stated Iranian precondition. [Britannica, Mar 06]

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