Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

What’s Happening

On May 31, 2026, reports emerged that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian submitted a formal letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader, citing a "total takeover" of key government functions by commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to Iran International, an opposition-aligned outlet, Pezeshkian's letter stressed that the president and cabinet had been excluded from major decision-making processes, creating a vacuum that allowed hardline IRGC factions to control state affairs. The resignation offer was reportedly sent to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, though the regime denied the claim, labeling it "rumors intended to serve the Mossad and the CIA." [Iran International, May 31]

The development has intensified scrutiny over Pezeshkian's political survival, with the prediction market "Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31" reflecting a 26% YES probability as of early June. The resignation attempt—if confirmed—would mark an unprecedented public rupture between a sitting Iranian president and the IRGC, which has steadily expanded its influence over economic and security policy since the 2022 protests. Multiple outlets, including Fox News and The Jerusalem Post, corroborated the report, noting that Pezeshkian used unusually sharp language in his letter to accuse the Guards of sidelining civilian governance. The Supreme Leader's office has not publicly accepted or rejected the resignation, leaving Pezeshkian in a precarious limbo. [Fox News, Jun 1]

The question of whether Masoud Pezeshkian will remain in office by year-end hinges on the Supreme Leader's response and the IRGC's willingness to escalate the power struggle. Analysts note that if Khamenei rejects the resignation, Pezeshkian could face continued marginalization, while acceptance would trigger a constitutional succession process and potentially early elections. The 74% NO probability in the market suggests traders currently expect Pezeshkian to retain his title, though the resignation letter—if authentic—demonstrates his inability to govern effectively. The standoff underscores deepening factional tensions within Iran's theocracy, with the IRGC's dominance raising questions about the presidency's future relevance. [Forex Factory, Jun 5]

Traded on Polymarket — $189K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 30c YES with $189K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.