Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 35%: Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (35% YES, 65% NO). US-Iran Peace Talks Stall as Conflict Nears Two-Month Mark.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be out of office by December 31 currently shows a 35% YES probability, reflecting significant political uncertainty amid escalating US-Iran hostilities. On April 25, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for mediated talks, stating on Fox News that "they can call us any time they want." This came after Iran's delegation had already left Islamabad. President Pezeshkian responded by declaring that Iran "won’t negotiate while the United States imposes a blockade on its ports," demanding that Washington "first remove operational obstacles, including the blockade" to allow a new round of talks. The stalled diplomacy directly threatens Pezeshkian's political standing, as he has staked his presidency on pursuing dialogue and agreement with the West. [Greenwich Time, Apr 26]

The collapse of peace negotiations comes as the Iran conflict nears its two-month mark, with both sides hardening positions. On April 23, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released video purportedly showing commandos seizing two cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a container ship operated by Greek-based Technomar Shipping Inc. Senior Iranian officials have blamed Washington for the stalled talks, citing the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as a key obstacle. The White House, meanwhile, has pointed to Iran's refusal to negotiate under current conditions. The dual pressures of a failing diplomatic track and escalating military confrontation are eroding Pezeshkian's domestic credibility, as he faces criticism from hardliners who oppose any engagement with the U.S. and from reformists who see his outreach as ineffective. [New York Post, Apr 23]

The question of whether Masoud Pezeshkian is out by December 31 hinges on his ability to navigate this crisis without losing the support of Iran's Supreme Leader or the parliament. On April 23, 2026, Pezeshkian stated that Tehran seeks "dialogue and agreement" but that "breach of commitments, blockade and threats" are hindering negotiations. The Bloomberg report on April 26 noted that efforts to resume peace talks stalled after Trump's cancellation and Iran's refusal to negotiate under threat. With the conflict now in its 55th day, according to Al Jazeera, and no clear path to de-escalation, Pezeshkian's political survival is increasingly tied to whether the U.S. and Iran can find a way back to the table. If the stalemate persists, his position could become untenable, potentially triggering a no-confidence vote or resignation. [Bloomberg, Apr 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $132K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 35c YES with $132K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.