Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?” at 11% YES with $231K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

What’s Happening

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office as of late August 2026, despite mounting domestic and international pressures that have fueled speculation about his political survival. The prediction market assessing whether Masoud Pezeshkian is out by December 31 currently reflects an 82% probability that he will remain in power, with only 18% betting on his departure. This comes as Pezeshkian attended the 26th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on August 31, where he met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, emphasizing regional stability and economic cooperation despite ongoing West Asia tensions [Dawn, Mon Aug 31].

The backdrop to this political uncertainty includes severe economic unrest that turned deadly in early January 2026, when protests over soaring living costs spread across multiple provinces, resulting in at least one paramilitary officer killed in Lorestan and security forces opening fire on demonstrators in Fars province. Pezeshkian appealed for national unity, attributing the economic pressure to Tehran's "enemies," while simultaneously vowing on August 31 that Iran would "respond decisively to aggression" without seeking war, a statement made ahead of his SCO trip [Al Jazeera, Thu Jan 01]. These dual challenges—internal protests and external military threats, particularly from the United States—have created a volatile environment where questions about Pezeshkian's tenure have become a topic of active speculation.

Looking ahead, the key factors that could shift the odds on whether Masoud Pezeshkian is out by December 31 include the trajectory of US-Iran tensions, with new sanctions reportedly targeting no new sectors of Iran's economy, and the potential for further escalation in the West Asia conflict. Pezeshkian's diplomatic engagements at the SCO summit, where he stressed the need for "convergence to advance economic and security goals," suggest an administration focused on multilateral alliances rather than domestic political upheaval [ETV Bharat, Mon Aug 31]. However, the persistence of deadly protests and the possibility of renewed US military pressure remain wildcards that could alter the political calculus before year's end, making the 18% YES probability a non-trivial risk for observers tracking Iranian leadership stability.

Traded on Polymarket — $231K Volume