Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
YES
62c
NO
38c
As of October 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?” at 62% YES with $55K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 62% probability to: will there be no hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the democrats win the senate?.
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 86c vs market 62c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 86c — market prices it at 62c. 24-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 38c — Market at 62% YES and PIN-driven 98% ignore that a compound AND condition fails hard if Dems underperform Senate (base rate ~45% in recen...
2 Active Wallets on This Market
Smart money is uniformly long YES, with both tracked wallets buying the 58c-59c range before the current 62c print. Their early accumulation signals conviction that the compound scenario—no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80 plus a Democratic Senate win—is underpriced, and the lack of any NO entries suggests no tracked wallet is fading that direction.
Both tracked wallets entered YES between 58c and 59c and are now profitable at 62c, giving every YES holder a positive mark while no NO positions exist to absorb the move. The absence of losing NO entries means there is no counterweight pressuring the price down, so the 62c level is supported by a clean, fully-in-profit YES book.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 62c YES — $55K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 62c with $55K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 86c. Significant 24-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
What are the current odds for Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 62% YES with $55K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 86c YES. 2 models agree on direction.
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