As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?” at 20% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 20% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by january 31, 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 6/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 63c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (63–88c vs 80c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 80c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The lone tracked wallet is exclusively long YES from 33c, a stale entry that now signals poor timing rather than informed conviction. With no NO-side counterpart, there is no smart-money confirmation of the bearish repricing to 20c, so the dominant YES side offers little directional edge. Absent fresh entries, this wallet's positioning should be treated as trapped capital, not a bullish signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.5K | -41% |
The single tracked wallet holds YES at 33c against a current 20c mark, leaving it 39% underwater with zero positions in profit. This unrealized loss creates no supportive bid at current levels, as the holder is likely to sell into any bounce rather than add, capping upside. With no NO entries to absorb supply, the 20c price reflects thin, one-sided positioning vulnerable to further drift lower.
Polymarket prices YES at 20c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 20c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $51K |
| Our Model | 20c | — |