Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES). Odds of when traffic will return to normal have tumbled sharply over the last few days.

What’s Happening

Traders on Kalshi currently assign a 20% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31, a sharp decline from early July when the same market priced a greater than 50% chance of normalization by October 1. The shift followed the July 7 attacks on shipping in the waterway, which sent the implied probability for a July-end resolution crashing to roughly 2% on Manifold. The Kalshi contract resolves based on a specific shipping metric tied to prewar throughput, which exceeded 100 vessels per day, and the current ladder shows August 31 at 12.5%, September 30 at 28%, and December 31 at 58% [CNBC, Jul 08].

The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 has drawn significant liquidity, with $1.4 million in 24-hour volume and $16.1 million traded overall as of mid-August, reflecting sustained investor interest in the stability of global energy routes. Polymarket traders are slightly more optimistic, pricing a 59% chance that traffic flows normalize by December 31, using the same definition and data source as Kalshi. The divergence between the October and December contracts highlights uncertainty over the timeline for mine clearance operations and the resumption of prewar shipping patterns, with the bulk of reopening probability concentrated in the fourth quarter [StartupHub.ai, Aug 10].

Iran’s stated conditions for a broader deal extend beyond shipping, including an end to the naval blockade of its ports, relief on oil sanctions reimposed after the truce collapsed, and access to frozen assets. These factors, combined with the physical timeline for demining the strait, have kept the October 31 threshold at just 20%, while the market for no normalization in 2026 sits at 42%. A CFTC-regulated ladder on Kalshi prices roughly a 45% chance of normalization before January 2027, and independent AI models evaluating the same ladder produced lower estimates across the board, suggesting traders may still be pricing in a faster recovery than historical precedent supports [OddsShopper, Aug 03].

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 20c YES.