Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?” at 20% YES with $66K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES). The pick: Tesla-SpaceX merger officially announced by Feb.

What’s Happening

The probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027, stood at 20% YES / 80% NO in the latest market snapshot, down from the 25.5% implied by Polymarket's timing ladder as of October 31, 2026. That ladder priced a December 31, 2027 deadline at 66.5%, June 30, 2027 at 58%, and February 28, 2027 at 35.5%, with the market carrying $1.66 million in volume, $78.77K in liquidity, and $173.88K in open interest. The structure reflects a steep term premium: traders assign roughly three times the odds to an announcement within 23 months as to one within the next three months, implying the January 31, 2027 contract functions as a near-dated event hedge rather than a base case. [CryptoSlate, Oct 31]

Momentum in the Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027 question has cooled materially since September, when the same deadline traded near 21.5% alongside $517,095 in headline volume and a 46.5% reading for December 31, 2027. The repricing coincided with a broader wave of tokenized-equity objections: on November 3, 2026, Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX blocked their stock from the OKX-ICE tokenized venue, following Nvidia and Nike in the largest such wave to date. Both companies answer to the same chief executive, and the contract requires only a public announcement—not a closed transaction—lowering execution risk but raising headline risk around Musk's public commentary. [Decrypt, Nov 03]

What's next centers on the annual meeting window and any formal corporate action. Barclays has named a merger window that falls inside the February 28, 2027 deadline, and the same question traded 20 points higher on Kalshi than on Polymarket as of mid-October, a cross-venue spread that typically compresses as liquidity migrates. For context, the December 31, 2026 contract has drifted to 9%–14% across venues, down from 16.5% in early September—a roughly 3–7 point decline that mirrors the pullback in the January 31, 2027 line. Absent a definitive announcement, the January 31, 2027 contract likely remains a low-probability tail position, with the December 31, 2027 deadline carrying the bulk of directional exposure. [247WallSt, Sep 04]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume