Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” at 13% YES with $884K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 15%: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (15% YES). On October 29, 2025, the ten largest U.S.

What’s Happening

As of late October 2025, the ten largest U.S. companies—including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft—reached a record combined market capitalization of $26.0 trillion, but that momentum stalled into year-end, with the group easing to $25.3 trillion by December 31, 2025. The question of whether Apple will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 has become a tightly contested benchmark for institutional investors, particularly as Nvidia’s AI-driven surge and Berkshire Hathaway’s post-Buffett transition have reshuffled the top rankings. Apple’s stock hit an all-time high in mid-2026 despite CEO Tim Cook’s muted public stance on AI, suggesting the market is pricing in steady hardware and services revenue rather than speculative hype [247wallst, Jul 14].

The race for the top spot has been volatile: Nvidia briefly overtook Apple in late 2025 on the back of GPU demand, but a January 2026 decline in the top-10 group’s combined value—falling from $25.3 trillion to roughly $24.8 trillion by January 23—highlighted how quickly sentiment can shift. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway, under new CEO Greg Abel since January 1, 2026, dethroned Nvidia as the largest company in the world in mid-July 2026, a move driven by defensive positioning and a major stake in Apple that remains Berkshire’s largest holding. This reshuffling matters because the "apple largest company in the world by market cap on december 31" outcome depends on whether AI capital expenditures sustain Nvidia’s valuation or whether Apple’s services margin—which grew to roughly 74% gross margin in fiscal 2025—provides more durable earnings support [Fool, Aug 4].

Historical precedent offers a cautionary note: the last time Apple held the top market cap spot at year-end was 2023, when it closed at $2.99 trillion, but it lost the lead to Nvidia in June 2024 and only regained it briefly in October 2025. Key indicators to watch include the December 2025 CPI print (released January 13, 2026, at 2.9% year-over-year) and the Fed’s January FOMC minutes, which signaled no rate cuts before Q2 2026—a headwind for high-multiple tech stocks. With the current probability at 15% YES, the market is pricing in a low likelihood that Apple reclaims the crown by December 31, especially given Alphabet’s custom TPU push and Saudi Aramco’s production ramp, both of which could challenge the top tier. The next catalyst is Apple’s Q4 earnings report, expected in late October 2026, which will reveal whether iPhone 17 Pro sales and AI services revenue can close the valuation gap [Fool, Dec 31].

Traded on Polymarket — $884K Volume