As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran full airspace closure by December 31?” at 25% YES with $336K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). İSTANBUL The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has told airlines to avoid operating in the airspace of Iran and Iraq until Aug.
The prospect of an **iran full airspace closure by december 31** remains a live geopolitical risk, driven by a conflict that has already forced repeated, costly shutdowns across the region. Iraq has kept its airspace closed since **February 28**, with the government extending the suspension by **72 hours** as US and Israeli strikes on Iran continue and Tehran responds across the Middle East. That closure alone has cost an estimated **$43 million**, according to Shafaq News, underscoring the severe economic toll of a prolonged no-fly zone over a key transit corridor. The Iraqi decision mirrors a broader pattern of precautionary shutdowns that have rippled through the region since the escalation began. [Shafaq News, Mar 31]
European regulators have institutionalized the threat, with the **European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)** issuing a formal advisory on **July 8** telling airlines to avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace until **August 31**. The agency acted after recent US attacks and remarks by President **Donald Trump** raised concerns over renewed military escalation, revising its conflict zone advisories in coordination with the European Commission. This followed an earlier Reuters report from **February 12** in which a safety body urged EU airlines to avoid Iran airspace until **March 31**, a deadline that has since been extended multiple times. While some carriers like **SWISS** have begun a phased return to northeastern Iranian airspace as of **August 27**, they continue to avoid the rest of Iran, Iraq, and Israel, reflecting a cautious, data-driven approach to a volatile threat environment. [Aa, Jul 08]
The structural factor that will determine whether an **iran full airspace closure by december 31** materializes is the trajectory of US-Iran military exchanges, which have already triggered partial and full shutdowns. Iran has partially reopened its airspace, allowing transit through eastern routes, while Iraq and Israel have reopened theirs but remain subject to short-term closures, according to a **January 24** report from Cntravellerme. US embassies in the region have issued alerts warning citizens of possible airspace closures and flight cancellations, urging “heightened vigilance.” The key variable is whether Washington and Tehran can sustain a de-escalation or whether renewed strikes force a comprehensive, indefinite closure before year-end. As of now, the market assigns a **28% probability** to a full closure by **December 31**, with the **72% NO** outcome reflecting the partial reopenings and phased returns seen in recent weeks. [Cntravellerme, Jan 24]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 78c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 76c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 73c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 78c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (64–78c vs 74c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 74c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The two tracked wallets are split, but the dominant positioning is NO at 65c, signaling smart money conviction that a full Iranian airspace closure will not occur by December 31. The lone YES entry at 19c is a deep out-of-the-money hedge that has already doubled in mark-to-market terms, yet it remains a minority bet against the prevailing NO consensus. With both sides profitable, the signal is that the market is efficiently pricing a low-probability tail event, and the NO entries at 65c reflect informed confidence in de-escalation or continued partial airspace access.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $5.9K | +15% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $3.7K | +22% |
Both tracked wallets are in profit, with YES entries at 19c now marked against a 26c market and NO entries at 65c benefiting from the same 26c print. The 7c gain on YES and the 39c cushion on NO indicate the market has repriced toward the NO side, leaving NO holders with substantial unrealized gains. This profit skew supports the 26c level as a ceiling rather than a floor, since NO holders have little incentive to exit at a loss and YES buyers face a 7c headwind from the current mark.
Polymarket prices YES at 25c with $336K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 26c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 25c | $336K |
| Our Model | 26c | — |