As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran full airspace closure by December 31?” at 29% YES with $280K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). İSTANBUL The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has told airlines to avoid operating in the airspace of Iran and Iraq until Aug.
The prospect of an **iran full airspace closure by december 31** remains a live geopolitical risk, driven by a conflict that has already forced repeated, costly shutdowns across the region. Iraq has kept its airspace closed since **February 28**, with the government extending the suspension by **72 hours** as US and Israeli strikes on Iran continue and Tehran responds across the Middle East. That closure alone has cost an estimated **$43 million**, according to Shafaq News, underscoring the severe economic toll of a prolonged no-fly zone over a key transit corridor. The Iraqi decision mirrors a broader pattern of precautionary shutdowns that have rippled through the region since the escalation began. [Shafaq News, Mar 31]
European regulators have institutionalized the threat, with the **European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)** issuing a formal advisory on **July 8** telling airlines to avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace until **August 31**. The agency acted after recent US attacks and remarks by President **Donald Trump** raised concerns over renewed military escalation, revising its conflict zone advisories in coordination with the European Commission. This followed an earlier Reuters report from **February 12** in which a safety body urged EU airlines to avoid Iran airspace until **March 31**, a deadline that has since been extended multiple times. While some carriers like **SWISS** have begun a phased return to northeastern Iranian airspace as of **August 27**, they continue to avoid the rest of Iran, Iraq, and Israel, reflecting a cautious, data-driven approach to a volatile threat environment. [Aa, Jul 08]
The structural factor that will determine whether an **iran full airspace closure by december 31** materializes is the trajectory of US-Iran military exchanges, which have already triggered partial and full shutdowns. Iran has partially reopened its airspace, allowing transit through eastern routes, while Iraq and Israel have reopened theirs but remain subject to short-term closures, according to a **January 24** report from Cntravellerme. US embassies in the region have issued alerts warning citizens of possible airspace closures and flight cancellations, urging “heightened vigilance.” The key variable is whether Washington and Tehran can sustain a de-escalation or whether renewed strikes force a comprehensive, indefinite closure before year-end. As of now, the market assigns a **28% probability** to a full closure by **December 31**, with the **72% NO** outcome reflecting the partial reopenings and phased returns seen in recent weeks. [Cntravellerme, Jan 24]
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Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 29c vs market 30c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 72c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 62c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 78c | 70% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 72c | 65% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 69c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 72% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–78c vs 70c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 71c — market prices it at 70c. 1-point gap supports NO.
The two tracked wallets show clear directional conviction: both YES entries at 19c indicate early bullish bets on closure, while both NO entries at 65c reflect later bearish positioning at a higher price. This divergence suggests smart money initially favored YES but was subsequently countered by stronger NO conviction at higher prices, signaling that informed traders now lean toward NO. The uniform entry prices on each side hint at coordinated or single-actor strategies, with NO's later entries implying a more recent and potentially better-informed bearish stance.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $5.5K | +9% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $4.3K | +56% |
Both YES and NO positions are currently in profit, with YES buyers at 19c seeing a 58% gain and NO buyers at 65c seeing a 54% gain. This symmetric profitability suggests the market has moved favorably for both sides since entry, but with NO as the dominant side, its larger capital base likely exerts stronger support near current levels. The absence of underwater positions implies no forced selling pressure, which could stabilize the price around 30c unless new information shifts the equilibrium.
Polymarket prices YES at 29c with $280K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 29c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29c | $280K |
| Our Model | 29c | — |