As of October 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?” at 72% YES with $101K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 72% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 2?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. BUY YES at 72c — models see 10c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 86c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c | 45% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 54c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 80c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 82c | 65% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (78–86c vs 72c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 82c — market prices it at 72c. 10-point gap supports YES.
Smart money here is a lone YES buyer at 93c, a late and aggressive entry that now looks poorly timed against the 72c mark. That single high-conviction entry signals directional belief in a ceasefire but offers no confirmation from additional wallets, so it should be read as isolated positioning rather than broad smart-money consensus. Absent NO entries or profitable holders, there is no counter-signal to validate the downside.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $7.5K | -23% |
The single tracked wallet holds a YES position entered at 93c, now marked at 72c, leaving 0% of YES and NO exposure in profit. The 21-point drawdown means the position is deeply underwater and any exit would realize a loss, so the holder is likely anchored rather than adding support. With no profitable cohort, the 72c price reflects weak conviction and limited fresh capital backing the ceasefire outcome.
Polymarket prices YES at 72c with $101K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 82c. Significant 10-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $101K |
| Our Model | 82c | — |