As of October 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?” at 43% YES with $53K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 43% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 22?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 3/6 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 72c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 30% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 62c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–75c vs 57c). Kimi Macro leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 70c — market prices it at 57c. 13-point gap supports NO.
Smart money here is a lone YES buyer at 46c, now 3c offside, signaling a directional bet on ceasefire continuation that the market has partially faded. With no NO entries recorded, there is no counter-positioning to read as informed opposition, so the entry is better treated as a single conviction trade than a consensus signal. The absence of follow-through buying above 43c suggests the wallet's thesis lacks broader validation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $1.6K | -8% |
The single tracked wallet is underwater on its YES position, entered at 46c against a current 43c mark, leaving 0% of YES holders in profit and no NO-side participants to speak of. With the entire book on one side and all of it losing, there is no profitable cohort to provide price support; the 43c level reflects unrealized losses rather than conviction buying. Any further drift lower would deepen the sole holder's drawdown and could invite capitulation selling into thin liquidity.
Polymarket prices YES at 43c with $53K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 30c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 43c | $53K |
| Our Model | 30c | — |