As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?” at 44% YES with $110K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).
The US and Iran remain locked in an uncertain diplomatic window as talks over extending a fragile two-week ceasefire continue without a formal agreement. On April 16, 2026, US officials told CBS News that negotiations on extending the ceasefire, set to expire the following Tuesday, were ongoing but that no new agreement had been reached. A senior US official stated that "the United States has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire," while acknowledging continued indirect engagement between Washington and Tehran. The uncertainty comes after a historic round of face-to-face talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 11, leaving the fate of the truce unresolved. [CBS News, Apr 16]
The current ceasefire, mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, took effect on April 8, hours after US President Donald Trump threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran accepted the truce on condition that US and Israeli attacks stop, agreeing to pause retaliatory strikes during the two-week window. Pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq also declared a two-week cessation of attacks on "enemy bases." The deal followed more than a month of coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran, underscoring how quickly any us x iran effective ceasefire by november 15 could unravel if the current truce lapses. [BBC News, Apr 08]
Trump has said the Iran war is "close to over" as Pakistan pushes for a new round of peace talks, but structural obstacles remain. The April 11 Islamabad negotiations—the highest-level direct engagement between Washington and Tehran since 1979—failed to produce an agreement, and a prior US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated how quickly military posture can shift. Analysts caution that without a formal extension, the two-week ceasefire expires with no binding framework, making the prospect of a durable us x iran effective ceasefire by november 15 contingent on whether both sides can convert indirect dialogue into a signed, verifiable arrangement. [PBS News, Apr 11]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
See the markets with a verdict →