Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). New York City, Northeast Swelter in Hottest Day of the Year.

What’s Happening

A powerful heat wave across the eastern United States pushed temperatures to extremes in early July, as roughly 142.7 million people from Kansas to Maine came under extreme heat warnings and forecasters flagged 152 warm-weather records that could be tied or broken. New York's Central Park was forecast to reach 100F (38C) on July 2, straining electric grids and driving up power prices. Meteorologists attribute the intensifying conditions to a combination of long-term, human-caused warming and a strengthening El Niño, which temporarily boosts global temperatures. Whether these conditions translate into the hottest year on record depends on how the second half of 2026 unfolds. [Insurance Journal, Jul 02]

Ocean data reinforced the warming trend. The EU-sponsored Copernicus Marine Service reported a new record global sea surface temperature, marking 2026 the third year in the last four to breach that threshold. On land, the human toll mounted: Public Health France reported at least 2,000 additional deaths during the week of June 22–28, a near-third increase, as the country logged its hottest-ever days and shattered records for peak daytime and nighttime temperatures. Europe simultaneously endured its own deadly heat wave over the same period, compounding pressure on emergency services and public infrastructure. [The Maritime Executive, Jul 03]

Looking ahead, scientists are tracking an intense "Super" El Niño forming in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters said the event could rank among the strongest on record, potentially setting a benchmark for peak intensity and amplifying extreme weather worldwide. Climate scientist Zachary Labe of Climate Central noted that El Niño layers a temporary boost atop the underlying warming signal, raising the odds of further record highs later in 2026. With the pattern expected to strengthen over the coming months, the question of a hottest year on record hinges on autumn and winter data, though the year would still need to surpass prior benchmarks to claim the title. [CNN, Jul 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $493K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 26c YES with $493K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.