Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?'?

As of September 2026, prediction markets price this at 76% YES on Polymarket with $608K in total trading volume.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus up to 5 AI analysts (only the models that responded that night are shown) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 70c YES. 3 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

76c

NO

24c

As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?” at 76% YES with $608K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record. Currently, markets see this as likely (76% YES).

Up from 28% to 76% since 2026-06-13 (+48pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $608K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 76% YES with $608K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What do AI models predict for Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 70c YES. 3 models agree on direction.