Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record. Currently, markets see this as likely (76% YES).

What’s Happening

Forecasters are increasingly confident that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, with the current probability standing at 76% according to aggregated climate models. This projection is driven by a rapidly developing El Niño event that the UK Met Office has described as potentially the "strongest in living memory", with sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific reaching unprecedented levels. The El Niño, which began intensifying in July 2026, is叠加 on top of a long-term warming trend from human-caused climate change, creating conditions that have already produced record-breaking heatwaves across Europe, with the UK recording its hottest day of the year in mid-August and western Europe setting new temperature benchmarks. [Carbon Brief, Jul 24]

The race to declare 2026 the hottest year on record is complicated by significant discrepancies between major temperature datasets. Carbon Brief's projection models show that the odds of a 2026 record vary dramatically depending on the dataset used: Berkeley Earth and NASA GISTEMP both indicate roughly 66% and 65% probability respectively, while HadCRUT5 sits at just 35%, and the ERA5 and JRA-3Q reanalyses fall to 13% and 9%. This divergence stems from differences in how each dataset handles ocean temperature measurements, Arctic coverage, and historical baseline adjustments. The stakes are high because a confirmed record would underscore the accelerating pace of climate change, particularly as the current El Niño is expected to peak in late 2026 and potentially extend into early 2027, with some experts already warning that the following year could be even hotter. [BBC News, Aug 21]

The implications of a record-breaking 2026 extend far beyond temperature statistics, as the ongoing El Niño is already triggering severe weather events globally. NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service have documented exceptional heat and dry conditions fueling wildfires across Europe, while ocean surface temperatures reached record highs for July 2026. The Met Office's chief forecaster described the projected three-degree temperature rise as "unheard-of in modern climate records", and the agency has confirmed that summer 2026 is on course to be the UK's hottest on record. Whether 2026 ultimately claims the title of hottest year on record will depend on which dataset is used for the final assessment, but the convergence of a powerful El Niño with anthropogenic warming makes a new global temperature record increasingly likely by year's end. [NASA Science, Aug 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $578K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 73c YES with $578K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.